Personally I am pretty pleased with the nominations and there are so few egregious omissions this year that I have changed the modal auxiliary from shoulda to coulda when addressing the snubs in most categories. My only real gripe is that the Oscar nominations in general are still so skewed towards U.S. Christmas releases, overlooking deserving titles from the spring, summer and early autumn. Films and performances such as Cynthia Nixon in A Quiet Passion (a film festival release in 2016 and general release in Spring 2017) and Rosamund Pike in A United Kingdom (U.K. November 2016 but a U.S. February 2017 release) have been long forgotten amidst all the end of year hype. Here in Italy we have been drip fed one best picture nominee a week from 13th January until now and at time of writing I still haven't seen Lady Bird which is to be released this Thursday. It's a particular shame that BAFTA distorts its own qualification period so as to ape the Oscar short list - if they kept to U.K. release patterns the love could be spread over a wider range of films.
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| Three Billboards Outside St Paul's, London |
Timothée Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name, Lady Bird), 2017 nominee Lucas Hedges (Lady Bird, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), actor/writer Tracy Letts (Lady Bird, The Post,
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| The criminally unnominated Michael Stuhlbarg in Call Me By Your Name |
Best Picture:
“Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
With one exception this is a pretty good list. Billboards is probably my favourite for its sweartastic script, tremendously entertaining performances and its shrewd exploration of the relationship between grief and anger. Despite its Globe, SAG and BAFTA wins though, I'm not so sure if it will carry the day at the Oscars as its critical reception stateside has been rather muted. There have also been the allegations that the film lets the racist cop played by Sam Rockwell off the hook too easily though I believe this argument deliberately misreads the film and plays down the emotional impact of Woody Harrelson's character on the other protagonists. Win or lose the film has resonated in the real world, with its production design coopted by protest movements to call institutions into account from London to Florida.
As the most nominated film, The Shape of Water is the other likely front runner especially as Del Toro's fable about how love can be both transcendent and transgressive is also a love letter to cinema and how genre movies (especially musicals and monster movies) offer a refuge for the lonely and the marginalised. The film borrows elements of Beauty & the Beast, Romeo & Juliet, Splash, and E.T. and is never less than engaging. The cast are uniformly brilliant, turning types into memorable human beings. However, I do wonder how the scenes of masturbation, cross species fornication and cat decapitation will go down with the older Academy demographic.
I am surprised that the most technically innovative film of the bunch - Dunkirk is not in a stronger position and appears even weaker since the BAFTAs, which favoured the far inferior Darkest Hour. Both Dunkirk and Get Out were on my Best Of list for 2017 though as the highest grossing films on the list, the Academy may feel that they have been awarded (commercially) enough already.
I really did enjoy Phantom Thread though I know that PTA is an acquired taste. The trailer doesn't do the film justice - playing up the style and sophistication but leaving out its wicked sense of humour. It really is marvellous, mischievous fun being both a riff on Hitchcock's Rebecca and an art house War of the Roses type satire on co-dependency.
Perhaps the best reviewed film of 2017 was Luca Guadagnino's Call Me By Your Name except in Italy, it would seem, where the Bertolucci acolyte is viewed as a suspicious elitist in an increasingly populist inward looking society.. Call Me By Your Name does rather languish in a romantic foreigner's eye view of Italy - intellectuals eating al fresco - and I think the film is overlong and hampered by Armie Hammer's miscasting. Hammer gives a fine performance but he looks way older than his character's supposed 24 years which has brought in an unintended ick factor in these post Spacey times. However the film's final act delivers genuine Proustian pathos and emotional weight as time passes and the central love affair ends.
The Post is not groundbreaking but it is solid entertainment - vintage Spielberg wearing his liberal values on his sleeve. The film is anchored by a terrific performance from Streep and a uniformly fine ensemble cast, Spielberg is often under appreciated as an actor's director, but there are more innovative titles to award this year. Apparently Spielberg is a big Greta Gerwig fan which really is no surprise as no one seems to have a bad word to say about her solo directing debut Lady Bird. I can't wait to see it and Gerwig is a great talent - a genuine writing/directing/acting triple threat but if 90 year old Oscar wants to hang with the kids this year then I think it will go with the genre bending of Get Out.
I usually enjoy Joe Wright's stylised costume dramas but Darkest Hour is equal parts hokum and hagiography ending with Churchill on a tube all but singing "We are the world". The reality was rather less palatable than what Oldman's cuddly impersonation would suggest - just ask anyone from "the colonies". Mudbound or The Florida Project would have been more deserving finalists or the wonderful A Fantastic Woman could have been broken out of the foreign language ghetto for this year's event.
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Shoulda Been A Contender: Mudbound, The Florida Project, A Fantastic Woman
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom ThreadDaniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Forget about Gary Oldman's latex Churchill, the real transformative performance of 2017 was Robert Pattinson in the Safdie Brothers kinetic crime thriller, Good Time. But back in September, before anyone had even seen Darkest Hour, some PR person launched the "it's Gary's time" narrative and it's stuck through the season. Don't get me wrong, I like Oldman, he deserved his nomination for Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy and he should have been nominated as far back as 1988 for his terrific Joe Orton in Prick Up Your Ears. I'll also grant you that his Churchill has an entertaining twinkle in his eye but this performance is no better nor worse than the half dozen other Churchill impersonations we have seen lately from Brendan Gleeson, John Lithgow and Brian Cox and the unanimous adulation from the Golden Globes, SAG and the BAFTAs really says more about the mindset of those voting bodies than the quality of the performance. In contrast, Pattison is absolutely electric on screen and keeps you engaged with the character even when his amorality appalls you. Of the actual nominees, Chalamet would get my vote. I have some problems with the film but not his performance which is superb. He shows us how Elio is transformed by his experience and made to drop his pretentious facade. And that final credits scene, well. No one but Daniel Day Lewis could have pulled off such a preposterous character as Reynolds Jeremiah Woodcock (that middle name is a misstep) - an OCD pedant with mummy issues, but pull it off he does with great charm and drollery. But hey he has 3 Oscars already so you know, give it to Gary.Will Win: Gary Oldman Darkest Hour
Should Win: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Shoulda Been A Contender: Robert Pattinson, Good Time, Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
Lead Actress:Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
Unlike the Actor's category, this is a great line up and I don't have an issue with any of the nominees. I don't even begrudge the Streep's 21st nomination. In The Post she subtlety conveys Katharine Graham's battles with the ingrained sexism of the time which fed into her own insecurity. You sense a great affinity between actor and subject; intelligent women whose sound liberal principles were often sneeringly dismissed as elitist. Saoirse is a great talent and will be nominated half a dozen times before she turns 30 just like Kate Winslet. Also like Winslet she will eventually win for something rather meh and middle brow. Sally Hawkins is at her translucent best in The Shape of Water and Margot Robbie brings real empathy to Tonya Harding in I, Tonya. However, this is Frances McDormand's year and I suspect that her Mildred Hayes may even surpass Marge Gunderson in the canon of great American characters she has brought to the screen. Mildred is incandescent with rage but McDormand informs and grounds her with a believable sense of guilt and loss. It's a shame there is no room on the list for Luxembougeois actress, Vicky Krieps who not only holds her own against Daniel Day Lewis in Phantom Thread but nearly steals the film from under him. There is a scene where her reaction to an antisemitic remark conveys pages of her character's backstory without a single word. That is great acting.Will Win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Coulda Been A Contender: Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread
Supporting Actor:
Willem Dafoe, The Florida ProjectWoody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
As mentioned above, Michael Stuhlbarg should be on this list - the speech he gives at the end of Call Me By Your Name is one of the greatest monologues in recent cinema, perfectly judged and genuinely moving. Rockwell has won all the priors but he could be at risk as most of the controversy surrounding Billboards concerns his character. Of course that would be confusing the actor with the character but then has that ever stopped the Academy before. If they shy away from Rockwell, Willem Dafoe could well be in the running. This would be a kind of career acknowledgement as support for his film, The Florida Project (which treats poor people as, God forbid, people), seems to be disappointingly thin on the ground.
Will Win: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Win: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Shoulda Been A Contender: Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name
Supporting Actress:Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady BirdOctavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
This is another stand out category with not a dud performance amongst them. Allison Janney seems to have the momentum and she really lifts I, Tonya to must see status. The race seems to be between Janney and Metcalf in the heavy hitting emotional roles though Blige, Manville and Spencer are all equally deserving for the quieter character portraits they provide. It's a shame there was no room for Holly Hunter, so great in The Big Sick, but probably voters felt that two feisty moms on the list was quite enough for one year. Personally I would love to have seen some long overdue recognition for Kirsten Dunst, whose performance in The Beguiled is the sad, wounded heart of that film.
Will Win: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Should Win: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Coulda Been A Contender: Holly Hunter, The Big Sick, Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
It seems that the Academy can nominate a black man and a woman in this category but not a black woman. Peele's and Gerwig's nominations are not token gestures - they certainly deserve to be here but so too does Dee Rees whose distinctive point of view made the historical drama of Mudbound so urgent and contemporary. Still this is a much better list than the old boys club at the Globes. McDonagh's omission for Billboards may be a further bad omen for that film, paving the way for Shape of Water to take home both best director and film, something which hasn't happened since Birdman 3 years ago. Del Toro's stamp is all over that beautiful film but, in my opinion the virtuoso technical achievement of Dunkirk would best be served by honouring Christopher Nolan here.
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Should Win: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Coulda Been A Contender: Dee Rees, Mudbound, Sean Baker, The Florida Project
“Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory
“The Disaster Artist,” Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
“Logan,” Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
“Molly’s Game,” Aaron Sorkin
“Mudbound,” Virgil Williams and Dee Rees
Some might see it as sentimental, but awarding 90 year old Ivory, who has been nominated three times as director but never won is the right thing to do. His adaptation of André Caiman's novel wisely jettisons the nostalgic framing device concentrating, movingly, on the brief summer of love at its core.
Will Win:“Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory
Should Win: “Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory
Coulda Been A Contender: "The Beguiled," Sofia Coppola
“The Big Sick,” Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Martin McDonagh
The Shape of Water is visually dazzling but not so narratively inventive therefore you can probably rule that out. The Big Sick has a great screenplay but I fear this - its sole nomination - will have to be its prize. Best Original Screenplay is often the consolation dished out to female directing nominees (Coppola, Campion) so Gerwig could have a chance here but I think in the end this is where they will honour Peele's deft blending of genres. Don't rule out McDonagh though, who the Academy clearly appreciate more as a writer than a director. Billboards' mid-film epistolary device doesn't work for everyone but the screenplay's spectacularly inventive swearing had me at the first "fuck".
Will Win: Get Out
Should Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Coulda Been A Contender: I. Tonya
“Blade Runner 2049,” Roger Deakins
“Darkest Hour,” Bruno Delbonnel
“Dunkirk,” Hoyte van Hoytema
“Mudbound,” Rachel Morrison
“The Shape of Water,” Dan Laustsen
From The Shawshank Redemption in 1994 to this year's nod for Blade Runner 2049, Roger Deakins has notched up 14 nominations without a single win. He should have been given it for the Assassination of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford in 2007 but he probably split the vote that year with his other nomination for No Country For Old Men letting Robert Elswit take it for There Will Be Blood. Will Oscar do the right thing by Deakins this year or will The Shape of Water be on a roll? Another narrative is that the Academy make history and give it to Rachel Morrison whose work on Mudbound is certainly deserving and who was also the helmer on film of the moment, Black Panther.
Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Win: Dunkirk
Coulda Been A Contender: The Beguiled
Original Score:
“Dunkirk,” Hans Zimmer
“Phantom Thread,” Jonny Greenwood
“The Shape of Water,” Alexandre Desplat
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” John Williams
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Carter Burwell
The Academy rarely wades into the murky waters of electronica so it's no surprise that Oneohtrix Point Never's startling score for Good Time didn't get a look in. However, Jonny Greenwood has finally been welcomed to the fold for his swoon worthy work on Phantom Thread. Greenwood's music evokes the period without resorting to pastiche. The same can't be said of Despot's whimsical score for The Shape of Water which has taken all the big awards so far. My vote would go to Hans Zimmer. He may have already won for The Lion King (!) but his music is such an integral part of Dunkirk's sensory experience.
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Dunkirk
Coulda Been A Contender: Good Time
Original Song:
“Mighty River” from “Mudbound,” Mary J. Blige
“Mystery of Love” from “Call Me by Your Name,” Sufjan Stevens
“Remember Me” from “Coco,” Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez
“Stand Up for Something” from “Marshall,” Diane Warren, Common
“This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman,” Benj Pasek, Justin Paul
I never thought I'd ever hear the epithet Academy Award Nominee applied to my indie hero Sufjan Stevens but there you go. His songs are such a perfect accompaniment to Call Me By Your Name - a melancholy Greek chorus to the story (Guadagnino originally asked Stevens to narrate the film in an earlier version). As good as "Mystery of Love" is, it is unlikely to win. Last year's winner Pasek & Paul could well be on a roll, critics may have hated The Greatest Showman but audiences love it, especially the songs. Diane Warren is the Roger Deakins of this category on to her 9th nomination this year having failed to snag it two years ago even after ringing in awards show whore Lady Gaga and giving her a writing credit. She's gone all out this year with a collaboration with a former winner in this category - Common. "Remember Me" from Coco must be the sentimental favourite but don't rule out renaissance woman Mary J Blige who may get a consolation prize in this category. Too close to call but I'll go with Showman.
Will Win: “This Is Me,” Benj Pasek, Justin Paul
Should Win: "Mystery of Love,"Sufjan Stevens
Coulda Been A Contender: "Visions of Gideon," Sufjan Stevens
Best Documentary Feature:
“Abacus: Small Enough to Jail,” Steve James, Mark Mitten, Julie Goldman
“Faces Places,” JR, Agnès Varda, Rosalie Varda
“Icarus,” Bryan Fogel, Dan Cogan
“Last Men in Aleppo,” Feras Fayyad, Kareem Abeed, Soren Steen Jepersen
“Strong Island,” Yance Ford, Joslyn Barnes
This is one category where the Academy doesn't seem to have a problem with Netflix, who boasts two nominations here - Icarus and Strong Island. The latter makes for an excellent companion piece with Three Billboards, tracing as it does the devastating familial consequences of an unprosecuted crime. However, like Paul Newman before her, Agnès Varda's recent honorary Oscar is likely to be followed up with the real thing.
Will Win: Faces Places
Should Win: Strong Island
Coulda Been A Contender: Kedi
The Other Races:
Everybody loves Coco so if it doesn't win Best Song it is sure to get Best Animated Feature. Expect Dunkirk and Baby Driver to go head to head in the sound mixing and sound editing races, while Dunkirk must surely prevail in the other editing award for the consummate handling of its tricksy time structure. As Oldman's Oscar is 70% due to the make up don't be surprised if this award goes to Darkest Hour just like the combo of Streep and her make up artist for The Iron Lady. Phantom Thread, in which the clothes are part of the narrative, may just pip Beauty and the Beast in which the clothes are part of the spectacle, for costume design. The Shape of Water's production design is key to that immersive world and should be justly recognised. In the foreign language category the uplift of A Fantastic Woman will trump the dour symbolism of Loveless though Cannes winner The Square has a high profile too.
Live Coverage of the 90th Academy Awards will be available in Italy on Sky Cinema Oscar HD from 10:50pm this Sunday, 4th March.
Follow Scary Bradshaw on the live blog here. Go to Pop Sugar and print out your own pdf ballot paper for the big night:
https://www.popsugar.com/entertainment/Printable-List-Oscar-Nominations-2018-44589826
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